V-Lab
Cashbox Partyworld Co Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
5,749.09
increased by 82.80
1 Week
5,724.21
increased by 57.92
1 Month
5,751.03
increased by 84.74
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 07:02 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 28, 2013 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5784 | 0.50 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0070 | 5.04*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9893 | 972.74*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0074 | 1.24 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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