V-Lab
Cashbox Partyworld Co Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
5,494.97
increased by 128.91
1 Week
5,396.20
increased by 30.14
1 Month
5,649.29
increased by 283.23
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 08:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 28, 2013 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5435 | 0.49 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0070 | 5.06*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9893 | 980.46*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0074 | 1.24 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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