V-Lab
Bitcoin Japan Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
210.36
decreased by 32.05
1 Week
244.53
increased by 2.12
1 Month
212.83
decreased by 29.58
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 12:07 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 2, 1992 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 256 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4325 | 3.91*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1537 | 14.95*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8436 | 84.90*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0347 | 0.19 |
| γ2 | -0.3481 | -1.48 |
| γ3 | 0.6776 | 6.88*** |
| γ4 | -0.5769 | -6.23*** |
| γ5 | 0.1514 | 1.60 |
| γ6 | 0.2905 | 3.02*** |
| γ7 | -0.2624 | -2.16** |
| γ8 | -0.5023 | -2.69*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
256 days
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