Bitcoin Japan Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
176.47
increased by 18.74
1 Week
156.70
decreased by 1.03
1 Month
116.05
decreased by 41.68
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 02:19 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 2, 1992 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 249 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4382 | 3.93*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1536 | 14.89*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8436 | 84.85*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0366 | 0.20 |
| γ2 | -0.3510 | -1.51 |
| γ3 | 0.6787 | 6.90*** |
| γ4 | -0.5744 | -6.17*** |
| γ5 | 0.1454 | 1.53 |
| γ6 | 0.2923 | 3.01*** |
| γ7 | -0.2532 | -2.05** |
| γ8 | -0.5046 | -2.75*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
249 days
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