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Bitcoin Japan Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

210.36

decreased by 32.05

1 Week

244.53

increased by 2.12

1 Month

212.83

decreased by 29.58

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 12:07 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bitcoin Japan Corp ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 2, 1992 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 256 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.4325
3.91***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1537
14.95***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8436
84.90***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ10.0347
0.19
γ2-0.3481
-1.48
γ30.6776
6.88***
γ4-0.5769
-6.23***
γ50.1514
1.60
γ60.2905
3.02***
γ7-0.2624
-2.16**
γ8-0.5023
-2.69***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

256 days