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V-Lab

Bitcoin Japan Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Liquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

176.47

increased by 18.74

1 Week

156.70

decreased by 1.03

1 Month

116.05

decreased by 41.68

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 02:19 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bitcoin Japan Corp ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's liquidity

Liquidity Forecast

How liquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 2, 1992 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 249 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.4382
3.93***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1536
14.89***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8436
84.85***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ10.0366
0.20
γ2-0.3510
-1.51
γ30.6787
6.90***
γ4-0.5744
-6.17***
γ50.1454
1.53
γ60.2923
3.01***
γ7-0.2532
-2.05**
γ8-0.5046
-2.75***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

249 days