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Bitcoin Japan Corp Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

278.06

decreased by 27.91

1 Week

306.07

increased by 0.10

1 Month

267.85

decreased by 38.12

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bitcoin Japan Corp ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 2, 1992 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): illiquidity shocks do not decay and the long-run level is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 77% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.9499
6.23***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0795
22.82***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8899
581.65***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0612
11.19***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-