V-Lab
People Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
4,883.21
decreased by 152.43
1 Week
5,399.57
increased by 363.93
1 Month
6,860.11
increased by 1,824.47
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 04:01 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 28, 2000 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 77016 trading days (~305.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0946 | 0.46 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1184 | 0.08 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8816 | 0.63 |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.1210 | -0.55 |
| γ2 | 0.2174 | 0.61 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
77016 days
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