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People Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

4,883.21

decreased by 152.43

1 Week

5,399.57

increased by 363.93

1 Month

6,860.11

increased by 1,824.47

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 04:01 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of People Co Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 28, 2000 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 77016 trading days (~305.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0946
0.46
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1184
0.08
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8816
0.63
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ1-0.1210
-0.55
γ20.2174
0.61

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

77016 days