Microprogram Information Co Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, November 11th, 2026
1 Day
6,903.90
increased by 3,722.97
1 Week
4,494.12
increased by 1,313.19
1 Month
3,820.02
increased by 639.09
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 09:16 PM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 2023 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 72 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~72 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2239 | 3.64*** |
| αARCH | 0.1741 | 6.55*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8162 | 30.03*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.3872 | -0.94 |
0.990
Persistence72d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2239 | 3.64*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1741 | 6.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8162 | 30.03*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.3872 | -0.94 |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
72 days
Other Microprogram Information Co Analyses
Other Spline ILLIQ Analyses on International Equities