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Microprogram Information Co Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, November 11th, 2026

1 Day

6,903.90

increased by 3,722.97

1 Week

4,494.12

increased by 1,313.19

1 Month

3,820.02

increased by 639.09

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 09:16 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/10/2024

to

11/10/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Microprogram Information Co ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 2023 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.990, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 72 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~72 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.2239
3.64***
αARCH0.1741
6.55***
βGARCH0.8162
30.03***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.3872
-0.94

0.990

Persistence

72d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2239
3.64***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1741
6.55***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8162
30.03***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.3872
-0.94

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

72 days