Microprogram Information Co Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, November 11th, 2026
1 Day
5,303.30
increased by 934.19
1 Week
5,080.75
increased by 711.64
1 Month
4,595.55
increased by 226.44
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 09:16 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 2023 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 155 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 247% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~155 daysAsymmetry: Illiquidity rises 247% more after negative returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 0.17 |
| αARCH | 0.0640 | 1.80* |
| βGARCH | 0.8526 | 37.05*** |
| γleverage | 0.1579 | 2.25** |
0.996
Persistence155d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.17 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0640 | 1.80* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8526 | 37.05*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1579 | 2.25** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
155 days
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