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Microprogram Information Co Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, November 11th, 2026

1 Day

5,303.30

increased by 934.19

1 Week

5,080.75

increased by 711.64

1 Month

4,595.55

increased by 226.44

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 09:16 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/10/2024

to

11/10/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Microprogram Information Co ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 2023 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 155 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 247% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~155 daysAsymmetry: Illiquidity rises 247% more after negative returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst5.0000
0.17
αARCH0.0640
1.80*
βGARCH0.8526
37.05***
γleverage0.1579
2.25**

0.996

Persistence

155d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
0.17
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0640
1.80*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8526
37.05***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1579
2.25**

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

155 days