V-Lab
Micreed Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 28th, 2026
1 Day
3,622.79
decreased by 351.59
1 Week
4,330.83
increased by 356.45
1 Month
7,051.09
increased by 3,076.71
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 07:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 16, 2020 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 169 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2501 | 4.62*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1684 | 10.99*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8275 | 51.54*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0321 | 0.52 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
169 days
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