V-Lab
Kannanmaru Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
8,402.28
increased by 4,418.42
1 Week
4,628.42
increased by 644.56
1 Month
2,655.49
decreased by 1,328.37
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 03:25 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 23, 1998 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 20 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.9671 | 5.85*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1684 | 11.44*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7974 | 52.46*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 0.0542 | 1.65* |
| γ2 | -0.1663 | -3.27*** |
| γ3 | 0.2332 | 6.51*** |
| γ4 | -0.1699 | -4.86*** |
| γ5 | 0.0198 | 0.31 |
Persistence:
0.966
Half-life:
20 days
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