V-Lab
Nansin Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
6,480.45
increased by 2,501.93
1 Week
4,553.35
increased by 574.83
1 Month
3,738.46
decreased by 240.06
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 30, 2026 at 08:13 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 2, 1996 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 60 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2690 | 4.93*** |
| αARCH | 0.1002 | 11.27*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8883 | 90.22*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0425 | -3.37*** |
| γ2 | 0.0873 | 4.07*** |
| γ3 | -0.1164 | -4.03*** |
0.989
Persistence60d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2690 | 4.93*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1002 | 11.27*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8883 | 90.22*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0425 | -3.37*** |
| γ2 | 0.0873 | 4.07*** |
| γ3 | -0.1164 | -4.03*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
60 days
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