V-Lab
Retty Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
8,341.92
increased by 4,929.93
1 Week
4,210.13
increased by 798.14
1 Month
3,954.73
increased by 542.74
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 30, 2026 at 08:01 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 30, 2020 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 110 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~110 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.6067 | 4.49*** |
| αARCH | 0.1805 | 9.10*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8132 | 40.14*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.1501 | -2.64*** |
0.994
Persistence110d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6067 | 4.49*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1805 | 9.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8132 | 40.14*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.1501 | -2.64*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
110 days
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