V-Lab
Press Kogyo Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
41.66
decreased by 1.89
1 Week
44.24
increased by 0.69
1 Month
40.88
decreased by 2.67
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 09:00 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 1, 1992 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 115524 trading days (~458.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0144 | 2.24** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1471 | 0.31 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8529 | 1.80* |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0395 | -0.03 |
| γ2 | 0.0459 | 0.04 |
| γ3 | -0.0166 | -0.42 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
115524 days
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