V-Lab
Press Kogyo Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
43.45
increased by 10.14
1 Week
38.61
increased by 5.30
1 Month
39.48
increased by 6.17
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 07:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 1, 1992 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 167 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~167 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.6039 | 6.52*** |
| αARCH | 0.1463 | 22.09*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8496 | 127.45*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0035 | 3.46*** |
0.996
Persistence167d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6039 | 6.52*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1463 | 22.09*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8496 | 127.45*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0035 | 3.46*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
167 days
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