V-Lab
Press Kogyo Co Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
44.32
increased by 15.06
1 Week
35.25
increased by 5.99
1 Month
33.34
increased by 4.08
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 07:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 1, 1992 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 101 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 179% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~101 daysAsymmetry: Illiquidity rises 179% more after negative returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8738 | 3.48*** |
| αARCH | 0.0667 | 4.86*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8668 | 134.49*** |
| γleverage | 0.1193 | 5.30*** |
0.993
Persistence101d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8738 | 3.48*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0667 | 4.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8668 | 134.49*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1193 | 5.30*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
101 days
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