V-Lab
Tanaka Seimitsu Kogyo Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
6,089.71
decreased by 425.12
1 Week
7,045.00
increased by 530.17
1 Month
4,957.62
decreased by 1,557.21
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 6, 2000 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 126 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0986 | 4.58*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0992 | 11.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8953 | 107.57*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0309 | -3.79*** |
| γ2 | 0.0559 | 4.00*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
126 days
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