V-Lab
Global Style Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, September 17th, 2026
1 Day
10,365.18
increased by 8,129.87
1 Week
3,872.06
increased by 1,636.75
1 Month
2,053.53
decreased by 181.78
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 17, 2026 at 07:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 24, 2021 to Sep 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.7510 | 5.23*** |
| αARCH | 0.1841 | 4.36*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7691 | 18.73*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0386 | -0.84 |
0.953
Persistence14d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7510 | 5.23*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1841 | 4.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7691 | 18.73*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0386 | -0.84 |
Persistence:
0.953
Half-life:
14 days
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