Meinan M&A Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, October 21st, 2026
1 Day
7,489.66
increased by 5,387.01
1 Week
2,771.28
increased by 668.63
1 Month
1,640.32
decreased by 462.33
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 07:21 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 2, 2019 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1231 trading days (~4.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~1231 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9165 | 5.58*** |
| αARCH | 0.1583 | 7.59*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8411 | 40.25*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.3196 | -3.85*** |
0.999
Persistence1231d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9165 | 5.58*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1583 | 7.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8411 | 40.25*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.3196 | -3.85*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
1231 days
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