V-Lab
Meinan M&A Co Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
4,317.36
1 Week
2,721.78
1 Month
3,528.27
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 10:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 2, 2019 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 59% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 2.40** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0794 | 14.54*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8970 | 311.15*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0471 | 4.78*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
693147 days
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