V-Lab
Kyoei Security Service Co Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 27th, 2026
1 Day
4,924.18
increased by 15.27
1 Week
3,715.13
decreased by 1,193.78
1 Month
3,093.09
decreased by 1,815.82
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 27, 2026 at 07:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 18, 2019 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4769 | 6.20*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0784 | 3.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8745 | 20.50*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0918 | -3.42*** |
Persistence:
0.953
Half-life:
14 days
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