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Kyoei Security Service Co Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Friday, November 13th, 2026

1 Day

4,250.79

increased by 1,734.06

1 Week

3,004.31

increased by 487.58

1 Month

3,494.00

increased by 977.27

Analysis last updated: Friday, November 13, 2026 at 09:03 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/12/2024

to

11/12/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Kyoei Security Service Co ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 18, 2019 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 13 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.4739
6.83***
αARCH0.0755
3.65***
βGARCH0.8739
19.87***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0911
-3.91***

0.949

Persistence

13d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.4739
6.83***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0755
3.65***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8739
19.87***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0911
-3.91***

Persistence:

0.949

Half-life:

13 days