V-Lab
Alue Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, September 24th, 2026
1 Day
3,697.80
decreased by 225.55
1 Week
3,810.58
decreased by 112.77
1 Month
4,199.65
increased by 276.30
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 11:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 11, 2018 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 53 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9042 | 5.47*** |
| αARCH | 0.1890 | 7.68*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7980 | 34.92*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0533 | -1.76* |
0.987
Persistence53d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9042 | 5.47*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1890 | 7.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7980 | 34.92*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0533 | -1.76* |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
53 days
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