V-Lab
Alue Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
2,821.39
decreased by 348.50
1 Week
3,570.55
increased by 400.66
1 Month
5,051.79
increased by 1,881.90
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 03:44 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 11, 2018 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 56 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9009 | 5.32*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1941 | 7.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7936 | 33.99*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0609 | -1.83* |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
56 days
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