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V-Lab

Alue Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, September 24th, 2026

1 Day

3,697.80

decreased by 225.55

1 Week

3,810.58

decreased by 112.77

1 Month

4,199.65

increased by 276.30

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 11:48 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Alue Co Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 11, 2018 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 53 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9042
5.47***
αARCH0.1890
7.68***
βGARCH0.7980
34.92***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0533
-1.76*

0.987

Persistence

53d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9042
5.47***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1890
7.68***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7980
34.92***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0533
-1.76*

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

53 days