Fenwal Controls Japan Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
7,486.99
decreased by 912.83
1 Week
5,414.96
decreased by 2,984.86
1 Month
2,930.87
decreased by 5,468.95
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 01:21 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 13, 1997 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 119 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.9043 | 4.99*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1377 | 11.04*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8565 | 69.28*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.3142 | 1.65* |
| γ2 | -1.9634 | -3.45*** |
| γ3 | 3.6302 | 3.63*** |
| γ4 | -2.1362 | -2.19** |
| γ5 | -0.7912 | -0.98 |
| γ6 | 1.4633 | 2.94*** |
| γ7 | -0.4502 | -1.86* |
| γ8 | -0.2689 | -1.19 |
| γ9 | 0.3251 | 1.45 |
| γ10 | -0.1341 | -0.45 |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
119 days
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