V-Lab
Nichidai Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
4,560.44
increased by 1,774.98
1 Week
3,485.11
increased by 699.65
1 Month
6,714.10
increased by 3,928.64
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 07:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 29, 2000 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 77016 trading days (~305.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7872 | 0.15 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1601 | 0.01 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8399 | 0.04 |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -1.1324 | -0.12 |
| γ2 | 1.5678 | 0.10 |
| γ3 | -0.6652 | -0.05 |
| γ4 | 0.1355 | 0.01 |
| γ5 | 0.4019 | 0.02 |
| γ6 | -0.4474 | -0.03 |
| γ7 | 0.0653 | 0.01 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
77016 days
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