V-Lab
Nagaoka International Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
6,238.04
decreased by 2,380.64
1 Week
3,968.34
decreased by 4,650.34
1 Month
3,142.33
decreased by 5,476.35
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 30, 2015 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.8122 | 3.58*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2578 | 11.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6771 | 30.09*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -3.7977 | -8.02*** |
| γ2 | 6.7542 | 8.65*** |
| γ3 | -5.0418 | -8.62*** |
| γ4 | 3.7555 | 9.36*** |
| γ5 | -2.2338 | -6.20*** |
| γ6 | 0.0385 | 0.11 |
| γ7 | 1.2984 | 3.70*** |
| γ8 | -1.3392 | -2.13** |
Persistence:
0.935
Half-life:
10 days
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