V-Lab
Prolific Technology Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026
1 Day
11,500.71
increased by 6,159.67
1 Week
6,232.32
increased by 891.28
1 Month
4,009.19
decreased by 1,331.85
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 11:14 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 3, 2003 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 99021 trading days (~392.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.8497 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3140 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6860 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -2.3023 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | 0.2159 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | 15.1813 | 0.02 |
| γ4 | -24.9055 | 0.00 |
| γ5 | 15.9572 | 0.00 |
| γ6 | -4.5603 | 0.00 |
| γ7 | -0.8528 | 0.00 |
| γ8 | 2.2383 | 0.00 |
| γ9 | -1.9028 | -0.01 |
| γ10 | 2.6505 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
99021 days
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