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Prolific Technology Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

3,277.76

decreased by 1,446.70

1 Week

4,821.75

increased by 97.29

1 Month

5,174.15

increased by 449.69

Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 4, 2026 at 12:24 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Prolific Technology Inc ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 3, 2003 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 6301 trading days (~25.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~6301 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.5182
2.31**
αARCH0.3107
1.19
βGARCH0.6892
2.72***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-2.1291
-0.27
γ2-0.0421
0.00
γ314.8430
1.86*
γ4-24.5327
-1.33
γ516.9424
1.11
γ6-6.3576
-0.90
γ70.5121
0.24
γ81.0063
2.53**
γ90.5421
1.30
γ10-2.0020
-2.76***

1.000

Persistence

6301d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.5182
2.31**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3107
1.19
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6892
2.72***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-2.1291
-0.27
γ2-0.0421
0.00
γ314.8430
1.86*
γ4-24.5327
-1.33
γ516.9424
1.11
γ6-6.3576
-0.90
γ70.5121
0.24
γ81.0063
2.53**
γ90.5421
1.30
γ10-2.0020
-2.76***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

6301 days