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Prolific Technology Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026

1 Day

11,500.71

increased by 6,159.67

1 Week

6,232.32

increased by 891.28

1 Month

4,009.19

decreased by 1,331.85

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 11:14 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Prolific Technology Inc ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 3, 2003 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 99021 trading days (~392.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.8497
0.00
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3140
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6860
0.00
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-2.3023
0.00
γ20.2159
0.00
γ315.1813
0.02
γ4-24.9055
0.00
γ515.9572
0.00
γ6-4.5603
0.00
γ7-0.8528
0.00
γ82.2383
0.00
γ9-1.9028
-0.01
γ102.6505
0.00

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

99021 days