V-Lab
Prolific Technology Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
3,277.76
decreased by 1,446.70
1 Week
4,821.75
increased by 97.29
1 Month
5,174.15
increased by 449.69
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 4, 2026 at 12:24 AM UTC
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How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 3, 2003 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 6301 trading days (~25.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~6301 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.5182 | 2.31** |
| αARCH | 0.3107 | 1.19 |
| βGARCH | 0.6892 | 2.72*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -2.1291 | -0.27 |
| γ2 | -0.0421 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | 14.8430 | 1.86* |
| γ4 | -24.5327 | -1.33 |
| γ5 | 16.9424 | 1.11 |
| γ6 | -6.3576 | -0.90 |
| γ7 | 0.5121 | 0.24 |
| γ8 | 1.0063 | 2.53** |
| γ9 | 0.5421 | 1.30 |
| γ10 | -2.0020 | -2.76*** |
1.000
Persistence6301d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5182 | 2.31** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3107 | 1.19 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6892 | 2.72*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -2.1291 | -0.27 |
| γ2 | -0.0421 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | 14.8430 | 1.86* |
| γ4 | -24.5327 | -1.33 |
| γ5 | 16.9424 | 1.11 |
| γ6 | -6.3576 | -0.90 |
| γ7 | 0.5121 | 0.24 |
| γ8 | 1.0063 | 2.53** |
| γ9 | 0.5421 | 1.30 |
| γ10 | -2.0020 | -2.76*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
6301 days
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