V-Lab
Nikki Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 28th, 2026
1 Day
4,439.18
decreased by 3.40
1 Week
4,480.31
increased by 37.73
1 Month
5,527.34
increased by 1,084.76
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 07:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 2, 1992 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 28 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0321 | 3.13*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1128 | 9.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8626 | 65.01*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 0.0795 | 1.07 |
| γ2 | -0.3139 | -3.10*** |
| γ3 | 0.5323 | 8.02*** |
| γ4 | -0.5485 | -8.20*** |
| γ5 | 0.3963 | 4.91*** |
| γ6 | -0.1698 | -2.08** |
| γ7 | -0.0816 | -0.90 |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
28 days
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