V-Lab
Nikki Co Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
4,313.20
1 Week
4,773.16
1 Month
5,659.43
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 09:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 2, 1992 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 36 | |
| αARCH | 0.1532 | 8.58*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7163 | 23.67*** |
| γleverage | -0.1532 | -4.19*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 10.0000 | 0.73 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0895 | 3.43*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9105 | 35.53*** |
0.793
Persistence3d
Half-lifeILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1532 | 8.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7163 | 23.67*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1532 | -4.19*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.73 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0895 | 3.43*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9105 | 35.53*** |
Persistence:
0.793
Half-life:
3 days
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