V-Lab
Shanghai LongYun Media Group Co., Ltd. Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026
1 Day
5,217.21
increased by 106.87
1 Week
5,365.16
increased by 254.82
1 Month
4,536.65
decreased by 573.69
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 03:21 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 24, 2015 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 46 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.2992 | 3.16*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3952 | 5.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5897 | 10.38*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -17.5979 | -1.27 |
| γ2 | 43.0465 | 1.31 |
| γ3 | -45.5037 | -1.50 |
| γ4 | 33.8975 | 1.86* |
| γ5 | -22.0398 | -1.72* |
| γ6 | 10.2296 | 1.55 |
| γ7 | -2.8183 | -1.12 |
| γ8 | 1.6985 | 1.06 |
| γ9 | 0.7689 | 0.67 |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
46 days
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