V-Lab
Shanghai LongYun Media Group Co., Ltd. Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026
1 Day
1,679.01
1 Week
1,934.31
1 Month
1,892.22
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 03:21 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 24, 2015 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: illiquidity responds almost entirely to negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 1.97** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0460 | 6.64*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8162 | 71.77*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2756 | 4.31*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
693147 days
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