Sinoma Energy Conservation Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
549.68
increased by 137.21
1 Week
369.38
decreased by 43.09
1 Month
300.54
decreased by 111.93
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 06:29 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 31, 2014 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 27 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2477 | 5.95*** |
| αARCH | 0.2667 | 17.01*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7081 | 51.99*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0027 | 0.37 |
0.975
Persistence27d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2477 | 5.95*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2667 | 17.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7081 | 51.99*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0027 | 0.37 |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
27 days
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