V-Lab
Hanshin Diesel Works Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
3,509.11
increased by 264.77
1 Week
3,525.45
increased by 281.11
1 Month
3,945.95
increased by 701.61
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 03:39 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 30, 1993 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 45 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9873 | 5.50*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0917 | 11.49*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8929 | 92.81*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.3017 | 3.77*** |
| γ2 | -0.7929 | -6.48*** |
| γ3 | 0.7989 | 9.49*** |
| γ4 | -0.2717 | -3.67*** |
| γ5 | -0.2349 | -3.31*** |
| γ6 | 0.4487 | 5.62*** |
| γ7 | -0.5310 | -5.98*** |
| γ8 | 0.5042 | 3.66*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
45 days
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