V-Lab
Zhejiang Digital Culture Technology Group Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
72.85
decreased by 8.77
1 Week
67.26
decreased by 14.36
1 Month
62.58
decreased by 19.04
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 06:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 4, 1993 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 23901 trading days (~94.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6324 | 0.87 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2779 | 0.08 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7221 | 0.20 |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 0.2778 | 0.02 |
| γ2 | -1.8078 | -0.91 |
| γ3 | 3.5736 | 0.08 |
| γ4 | -2.3575 | -0.04 |
| γ5 | -0.3293 | -0.01 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
23901 days
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