V-Lab
Kyoritsu Air Tech Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
6,688.51
increased by 2,896.47
1 Week
4,700.80
increased by 908.76
1 Month
4,452.73
increased by 660.69
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 07:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 20, 1995 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 62 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0692 | 3.09*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1179 | 10.96*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8711 | 76.78*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.1045 | 0.69 |
| γ2 | 0.0806 | 0.39 |
| γ3 | -0.6874 | -4.70*** |
| γ4 | 1.1166 | 7.03*** |
| γ5 | -1.2186 | -8.97*** |
| γ6 | 0.8543 | 5.44*** |
| γ7 | -0.1678 | -1.05 |
| γ8 | -0.1525 | -1.07 |
| γ9 | 0.1184 | 0.72 |
| γ10 | -0.0240 | -0.12 |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
62 days
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