V-Lab
Kyoritsu Air Tech Inc ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
5,617.62
1 Week
3,610.73
1 Month
3,425.92
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 07:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 20, 1995 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 211 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 116 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1205 | 5.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8920 | 469.74*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0316 | -0.80 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 1.4793 | 1.57 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.01 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9995 | 1,221.92*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
211 days
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