V-Lab
Kanefusa Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
4,419.42
increased by 1,826.92
1 Week
2,942.23
increased by 349.73
1 Month
2,262.50
decreased by 330.00
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 09:09 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 22, 1999 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 101 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~101 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.8675 | 6.13*** |
| αARCH | 0.0862 | 9.97*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9070 | 107.86*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0044 | 1.69* |
0.993
Persistence101d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.8675 | 6.13*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0862 | 9.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9070 | 107.86*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0044 | 1.69* |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
101 days
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