V-Lab
Kogi Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026
1 Day
4,461.27
increased by 3,062.53
1 Week
2,079.48
increased by 680.74
1 Month
1,676.63
increased by 277.89
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 07:41 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 11, 1993 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 138629 trading days (~550.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7935 | 0.13 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1519 | 0.01 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8481 | 0.08 |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.1909 | -2.11** |
| γ2 | 0.3077 | 5.47*** |
| γ3 | -0.2218 | -1.17 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
138629 days
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