V-Lab
Tm Technology Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 29th, 2026
1 Day
8,764.00
increased by 2,534.40
1 Week
6,427.84
increased by 198.24
1 Month
4,095.10
decreased by 2,134.50
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 29, 2026 at 08:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 12, 2006 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 6795 trading days (~27.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8968 | 2.27** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1842 | 3.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8157 | 16.03*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 1.0504 | 0.76 |
| γ2 | -5.0543 | -1.81* |
| γ3 | 10.5908 | 1.59 |
| γ4 | -13.0211 | -1.67* |
| γ5 | 11.4244 | 2.15** |
| γ6 | -7.2059 | -2.75*** |
| γ7 | 1.2406 | 1.20 |
| γ8 | 2.1959 | 3.71*** |
| γ9 | -1.1436 | -1.41 |
| γ10 | -1.3440 | -0.90 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
6795 days
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