V-Lab
Tm Technology Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 29th, 2026
1 Day
8,863.58
1 Week
6,700.54
1 Month
5,236.54
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 29, 2026 at 08:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 12, 2006 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 229% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.39 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0485 | 15.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8960 | 262.08*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1109 | 22.45*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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