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Loyalty Founder En Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Liquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026

1 Day

10,101.63

increased by 4,034.60

1 Week

7,044.25

increased by 977.22

1 Month

4,546.03

decreased by 1,521.00

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 22, 2026 at 08:40 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Loyalty Founder En ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's liquidity

Liquidity Forecast

How liquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 2, 2003 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 2221 trading days (~8.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1336
7.25***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1841
8.76***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8156
38.53***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-0.5732
-0.78
γ20.1116
0.12
γ32.1186
2.21**
γ4-4.3269
-2.72***
γ55.2808
2.58***
γ6-4.0767
-2.43**
γ72.4117
2.64***
γ8-2.9435
-3.14***
γ95.0696
4.40***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

2221 days