Loyalty Founder En ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
11,263.30
1 Week
7,448.67
1 Month
4,585.57
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 22, 2026 at 08:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 2, 2003 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 12 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 12 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2217 | 0.52 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8225 | 225.97*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2045 | -0.28 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 1.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9875 | 79.82*** |
Persistence:
0.942
Half-life:
12 days
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