V-Lab
Takasago Tekko Kk Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
8,453.07
increased by 3,522.68
1 Week
5,678.20
increased by 747.81
1 Month
5,778.15
increased by 847.76
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 12:14 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 1, 1992 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 51 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5585 | 4.28*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1565 | 13.24*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8300 | 68.16*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.2876 | 2.94*** |
| γ2 | -0.3946 | -2.48** |
| γ3 | -0.1699 | -1.48 |
| γ4 | 0.8151 | 8.26*** |
| γ5 | -0.9585 | -9.62*** |
| γ6 | 0.5028 | 5.81*** |
| γ7 | 0.1301 | 1.58 |
| γ8 | -0.4609 | -5.10*** |
| γ9 | 0.3855 | 2.56** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
51 days
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