V-Lab
Universal Tech Sys Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 28th, 2026
1 Day
3,177.98
decreased by 547.59
1 Week
3,665.88
decreased by 59.69
1 Month
4,958.40
increased by 1,232.83
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 08:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 12, 2006 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 63013 trading days (~250.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0630 | 0.03 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1754 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8246 | 0.01 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.5386 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | -0.9816 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | 2.6861 | 0.01 |
| γ4 | -3.0241 | -0.01 |
| γ5 | 4.6834 | 0.14 |
| γ6 | -5.3507 | -0.02 |
| γ7 | 4.5153 | 0.01 |
| γ8 | -3.2818 | -0.01 |
| γ9 | 2.2171 | 0.05 |
| γ10 | -2.1196 | -0.01 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
63013 days
Other Universal Tech Sys Inc Analyses
Other Spline ILLIQ Analyses on International Equities