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Universal Tech Sys Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 28th, 2026

1 Day

3,177.98

decreased by 547.59

1 Week

3,665.88

decreased by 59.69

1 Month

4,958.40

increased by 1,232.83

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 08:52 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Universal Tech Sys Inc ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 12, 2006 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 63013 trading days (~250.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0630
0.03
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1754
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8246
0.01
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.5386
0.00
γ2-0.9816
0.00
γ32.6861
0.01
γ4-3.0241
-0.01
γ54.6834
0.14
γ6-5.3507
-0.02
γ74.5153
0.01
γ8-3.2818
-0.01
γ92.2171
0.05
γ10-2.1196
-0.01

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

63013 days