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Universal Tech Sys Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 28th, 2026

1 Day

3,681.18

decreased by 110.10

1 Week

3,897.12

increased by 105.84

1 Month

4,401.89

increased by 610.61

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 08:52 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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graph of Universal Tech Sys Inc ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 12, 2006 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: illiquidity responds almost entirely to negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
0.31
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0097
3.14***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9629
352.07***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0547
22.71***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days