V-Lab
Cel Corporation Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
5,556.10
increased by 18.15
1 Week
5,215.52
decreased by 322.43
1 Month
5,100.78
decreased by 437.17
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 07:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 11, 2022 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 11 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0041 | 4.83*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0560 | 2.65*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8851 | 17.34*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0894 | -1.21 |
Persistence:
0.941
Half-life:
11 days
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