V-Lab
Cel Corporation Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 27th, 2026
1 Day
4,306.97
decreased by 182.00
1 Week
4,560.64
increased by 71.67
1 Month
5,129.79
increased by 640.82
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 27, 2026 at 07:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 11, 2022 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 12 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0039 | 4.88*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0542 | 2.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8884 | 17.75*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0881 | -1.23 |
Persistence:
0.943
Half-life:
12 days
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