V-Lab
San Shing Fastech Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
5,724.91
decreased by 910.61
1 Week
5,099.97
decreased by 1,535.55
1 Month
4,999.14
decreased by 1,636.38
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 06:13 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 10, 2001 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 119 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0993 | 3.72*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1751 | 14.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8191 | 71.11*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0659 | -3.60*** |
| γ2 | 0.1074 | 4.36*** |
| γ3 | -0.0590 | -3.24*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
119 days
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