V-Lab
TST Group Holding Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 28th, 2026
1 Day
6,773.11
increased by 92.78
1 Week
4,507.81
decreased by 2,172.52
1 Month
3,623.26
decreased by 3,057.07
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 08:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 6, 2019 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7885 | 10.03*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1536 | 6.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7714 | 22.48*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.0890 | 0.50 |
| γ2 | -0.7094 | -2.23** |
| γ3 | 1.6458 | 5.37*** |
| γ4 | -2.6967 | -5.62*** |
Persistence:
0.925
Half-life:
9 days
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