V-Lab
Ricksoft Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
3,314.42
decreased by 132.56
1 Week
3,347.95
decreased by 99.03
1 Month
3,708.46
increased by 261.48
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 07:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 26, 2019 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 242 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9249 | 3.22*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1941 | 11.69*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8030 | 47.75*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0265 | 0.76 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
242 days
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