V-Lab
Asgent Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
8,935.27
increased by 4,897.87
1 Week
4,596.91
increased by 559.51
1 Month
3,047.20
decreased by 990.20
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 07:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 3, 2001 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1276 trading days (~5.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8810 | 4.78*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2474 | 23.83*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7520 | 72.64*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -1.6442 | -5.74*** |
| γ2 | 3.5630 | 6.01*** |
| γ3 | -3.9389 | -7.88*** |
| γ4 | 3.4249 | 11.57*** |
| γ5 | -2.2027 | -11.10*** |
| γ6 | 1.2138 | 6.61*** |
| γ7 | -0.2163 | -1.02 |
| γ8 | -0.7017 | -3.39*** |
| γ9 | 0.6703 | 2.85*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
1276 days
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