V-Lab
GMO TECH Holdings Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 27th, 2026
1 Day
4,194.66
decreased by 7,433.69
1 Week
5,473.08
decreased by 6,155.27
1 Month
4,149.45
decreased by 7,478.90
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 27, 2026 at 07:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 1, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.2453 | 5.22*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2955 | 1.81* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.1611 | 0.86 |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 17.7972 | 4.56*** |
| γ2 | -27.2403 | -3.25*** |
Persistence:
0.457
Half-life:
1 days
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