V-Lab
GMO TECH Holdings Inc ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 27th, 2026
1 Day
544.10
1 Week
44,026.71
1 Month
11,586.28
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 27, 2026 at 07:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 1, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 121 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 65% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 71 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.7510 | 202.42*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 10.00*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.4866 | 65.91*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0069 | 143.27*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 2.00** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
121 days
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