V-Lab
Orient Europharma Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
8,191.53
increased by 2,992.97
1 Week
4,870.55
decreased by 328.01
1 Month
3,353.53
decreased by 1,845.03
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 03:26 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 12, 2006 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4063 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1508 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8492 |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -1.3692 | |
| γ2 | 4.8991 | |
| γ3 | -6.1145 | |
| γ4 | 3.1619 | |
| γ5 | -0.9443 | |
| γ6 | 1.0146 | |
| γ7 | -1.5929 | |
| γ8 | 1.9488 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
693147 days
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