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V-Lab

Orient Europharma Co Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

8,058.91

increased by 2,965.61

1 Week

4,796.88

decreased by 296.42

1 Month

3,371.18

decreased by 1,722.12

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 03:26 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Orient Europharma Co Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 12, 2006 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 574 trading days (~2.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.

μ

ILLIQ-MFMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

126
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1461
2.87***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8626
182.33***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0198
-0.19
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

10.0000
1.41
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0000
0.03
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9990
2,038.74***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

574 days