V-Lab
Orient Europharma Co Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
8,058.91
1 Week
4,796.88
1 Month
3,371.18
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 03:26 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 12, 2006 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 574 trading days (~2.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1461 | 2.87*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8626 | 182.33*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0198 | -0.19 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 1.41 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.03 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9990 | 2,038.74*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
574 days
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