V-Lab
Bluememe Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026
1 Day
6,614.45
increased by 1,328.03
1 Week
5,212.33
decreased by 74.09
1 Month
4,060.79
decreased by 1,225.63
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 07:31 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 29, 2021 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 76 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7022 | 4.24*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1362 | 7.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8547 | 40.30*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.1133 | -1.81* |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
76 days
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